Navigation:

Introduction

Age Structure

Nuptiality

Divorce

Natality

Abortion

Mortality

Migration

Population Forecast

Appendix

Bibliography

INTRODUCTION

This is the sixth population report for the Czech Republic prepared by members of the Department of Demography and Geodemography of the Faculty of Sciences of Charles University. It differs from its predecessors in its attempt to sum up the earlier annual reports and identify the most important trends in the various elements of population development over the last decade (1989–1998), that is to say in the period of economic and social transformation after the restoration of a democratic political system. As with the 1996 report on population development in the Czech Republic, this report is published in both Czech and English.

In evaluating the population development of any country it is important to set this in the wider historical and geographical context. The Czech population can be counted as demographically developed, that is to say that it has already passed through the process of demographic revolution, which took place in this country between the 1830s and 1930s. It is a unique process in the history of every population and has a fundamental significance for future developments. It can only be understood in the context of those social, economic and political changes which could be described as the global revolution of the modern era and of which it is in fact a part. In both cases it is a world-wide process and the Czech population is not lagging too far behind the countries of western and northern Europe which were the pioneers of these changes.

The demographic revolution can be summed up as a fundamental change in demographic behaviour from demographic reproduction characterised by the "natural" course of the two basic demographic processes of natality and mortality, which is outside the scope of individual control, to demographic reproduction which is influenced, controlled or even planned by individuals (as with the number of children in a family). To set this process in a time frame we use various demographic indices in the awareness that the basis of the demographic revolution lies in the changes in demographic behaviour itself. The mortality intensity drops dramatically, particularly among infants and children, life expectancy doubles and fertility falls to less than half its earlier level. During the demographic revolution, some countries may have a high rate of natural increase and this was the fact in this country, even though population growth was average when compared with other countries which underwent the same process in about the same time.

It is difficult to fix a particular year as signalling the end of the demographic revolution in any country. This is a logical consequence of its very complexity, which is differentiated by time and region (including the differences between urban and rural areas), and by social, national and ethnic groups. The Romany population in this country is in the throes of the demographic revolution at the present time, although the relatively small percentage of Roma living here means that their higher rates of fertility and mortality do not significantly influence the national indicators.

The end of the process of demographic revolution does not however mean the end of a population's demographic history. Rapid population growth ceases to be a problem, the level of natural increase approaches or hovers around replacement level and the demographic problems facing the population are entirely different. The reasons for concern now tend to be the low level of fertility, the falling number of inhabitants, the uneven age structure and the acceleration of the process of demographic ageing. Greater attention is now directed towards other processes of demographic reproduction - nuptiality, divorce and abortion. Migration also acquires a greater significance as a process which complements the natural change in the population. The new nature of demographic reproduction is based on the increasing importance based on individuals' responsibility for their own health and for the number and timing of children. These are however much more sensitive to changes in the overall social, economic and political environment in the broadest sense in which the demographic reproduction is taking place.

If the abnormal period of the second world war is left aside, the half century or so since the end of the demographic revolution in the Czech Republic can be divided into various periods. From the point of view of the development of fertility, a period of high fertility immediately after the second world war, i.e. the baby boom typical of most European countries, was followed by a period of falling fertility rates up to 1970. At the beginning of the 1970s there was a new temporary rise in fertility, which then more or less stabilised in the 1980s when, in combination with the more or less stable level of mortality, it meant basically zero population growth. After 1989 there was a strong reaction to the changes which the economic and social transformation wrought in the environment of demographic reproduction.

In 1946 there were 210,000 births and the crude birth rate for a five year period exceeded 20 per thousand. This compensated for the low number of children born during the second world war, even though the number did start to rise slightly during the war. It was also a sign of a certain optimism about the future, which is normal after winning any war. From 1950, however, the number of children born fell rapidly to reach an annual level of 160,000 in the second half of the 1960s. The absolute minimum came in 1968 in reaction to the upheavals in society and the expectation of important political changes and new opportunities for social advancement, which had until then been controlled by the communist party, the abolition of travel restrictions, etc. Any such expectations lead to disquiet in society, creating an unfavourable population climate (for the decision to have a child or not at that time). When family planning is an individual matter, families react very strongly to all aspects of the social environment.

The short-term rise in the fertility level after 1970 is still a matter of debate for experts in the field. It is probable that the government policy of encouraging a high birth rate played a part in this, but it also undeniable that it was in some degree a compensation for the earlier period when people put off having children. In 1974, for example, more second children were born than first children. In addition, this period saw a certain level of social and political stabilisation, albeit negative, the restoration of the communist promotion policy, and a subsequent "return to family life". In 1974 194,000 children were born, bringing the level close to that of the post-war period. After that there was a gentle but almost steady decline in the number of births, particularly in the 1980s, down to 130,000 per year, i.e. fewer than in 1968. In comparison with the overall development since the war, the period since 1990 has seen a further and very significant fall in the number of births, bringing them in 1995 to under 100,000 for the first time in the history of the Czech Republic. In the last three years births have remained at around 90,000 per year. Total fertility fell to less than 1.21 children, which is one of the lowest levels in the world. The analysis here concentrates primarily on this latest period.

The improvement in mortality since the second world war is primarily due to the relatively rapid reduction in the level of infant mortality. In 1960 life expectancy reached 67 years for men and 73 for women. Male life expectancy did not change in the following thirty years and that of women rose by only three years to 76 years. The difference in male and female life expectancy increased from 6 to 8.5 years between 1960 and 1990. The lack of change in life expectancy over such a long period, particularly in comparison with the situation in most western European countries, is evidence of the generally poor state of health in this period, particularly among men. Only in recent years has there been a very positive development in mortality which has seen male life expectancy rise by 3 years in a relatively short period and that of women by a further 2 years. Even so Czechs are lagging behind in international comparisons. In 1997 life expectancy in Czechia was 3.7 years less for men and 4.6 less for women than in France. Bringing mortality to the level of the most favourable countries is a question of decades rather than years.

One important factor influencing the number of children born is the level of nuptiality. In this country following the second world war it was high, as indeed it was in most of the former communist countries. The average age at marriage was also relatively low. Since the beginning of the economic and social transformation there has been a clear shift towards marrying at a later age; the average age at marriage has risen by around three years and is likely to rise further as those people who did not marry early finally do so. In the younger age groups the percentage of single persons has risen, although there is as yet no obvious preference for living together outside marriage, as is the case in some western and particularly northern countries. Some indication of such a tendency can be gained from the number of children born outside wedlock but while this has risen to 19% in recent years, it is still lower than in those countries. The Czech Republic has one of the highest divorce rates in Europe, although this has recently shown signs of stabilising.

Since the end of the 1950s the Czech Republic has also been numbered among those countries with a high level of abortion (a law permitting the artificial termination of pregnancies, including for social reasons, was passed in 1958). After further amendments which left it still more liberal (the abolition of Abortion Commissions) the number of abortions rose to more than 100,000, with a total induced abortion rate of 1.5. In recent years there has been a very positive development in this respect. Between 1990 and 1997, the number of artificially terminated pregnancies fell by 60%, although even this leaves us lagging behind the low rates of abortion in western European countries. It should not however be long until the abortion rate falls still further to the level common in those countries. The population of Czechia has not risen since 1994 due to the fall in the natural balance. In 1994 the total fall was insignificant (852 persons) because it was made up by immigration. In subsequent years it moved to around 10,000 persons, although these figures may not be exact since emigration is difficult to define and so measure.

The population development of the Czech Republic has various features which have already been identified and described in western European countries as the second demographic transition. These include first and foremost the low rates of natality and nuptiality, the latter in combination with a rise in the number of consensual unions and so of children born out of wedlock, and also the high divorce rate. A low number of births over an extended period resulting in a decline in the natural change of the population need not necessarily be purely compensatory and due to a change in the timing of children. It is undeniable that demographic reproduction at the present time is exhibiting a number of new features, and not only in this country. In planning their families parents are increasingly sensitive to the changing social environment in the broadest sense. The basic character of demographic behaviour does not change and these changes are not as to be compared with the demographic revolution of the past, which is still under way in some places, but are gradually spreading to all the populations of the world, regardless of their ethnic background, prevailing religious affiliation, political system, etc. It is not possible to predict whether the demographic revolution will lead to a complete and lasting homogenisation of demographic processes throughout the world to a level of zero population growth. There will always be different and changing social and economic conditions which will upset this balance, even without taking the rising level and significance of international migration. These changing conditions will also stimulate further developments in society for which demographic reproduction will only provide a basis, and often new elements which it must adapt to.

As in previous years, almost all the members of the Department of Demography and Geodemography have contributed to the analyses translated here. The first chapter (prepared by Ludmila Fialová) is devoted to the question of the changing age structure in the demographic history of Czechia in the last hundred years. The graph included clearly show the low level of natality in recent years. The second chapter (Milan Kučera) analyses nuptiality and the third (Květa Kalibová) divorce. The fourth chapter (Tomáš Sobotka and Kryštof Zeman) is logically related to these, being an analysis of natality, the demographic field which has shown the most significant changes in recent years. The positive developments in the field of abortion are evaluated in the fifth chapter (Dagmar Bartoňová). Developments in mortality were also very positive and these are discussed in Chapter Six (Boris Burcin). Chapter Seven (Tomáš Kučera) complements the discussion of demographic reproduction with an analysis of migration and the eighth and final chapter (by Tomáš Kučera and Boris Burcin) deals with forecasts of future population development in this country. As the authors have tried to sum up the main trends in population development here since 1989, we have greatly expanded the appendix of basic and analytical demographic data. Data on population development have been taken from those published by the Czech Statistical Office, and in the case of abortion from the Institute for Information on Health of the Ministry of Health. Data on other countries have been taken primarily from publications of the UN and the Council of Europe.

NEXT (Age Structure) > >