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Introduction

Age Structure

Nuptiality

Divorce

Natality

Abortion

Mortality

Migration

Population Forecast

Appendix

Bibliography

NUPTIALITY

In the Czech Republic it is still generally assumed that a couple will marry before starting a family and having children. Even if the number of people living together outside marriage has risen in recent years, surveys show that these are mostly young single people who are "trying out" a relationship and that as a rule they marry before the birth of their first child. Long-term de facto marriages are usually between older people. Of single people beneath the age of 30, 86% of men and 92% of women intend to get married, either directly or after a period of living together. It is clear from this that the prevailing model in the Czech Lands is that of marriage and raising children within marriage, with the modification of more frequent "trial marriages" before the official ceremony.

Since the second world war virtually all young single people in the Czech Republic have married, generally at a fairly young age. During the war marriage and children were the only sure means for women to avoid working in the arms industry and for some men represented protection from forced labour in Germany. After the war the age for marriage was lowered to 18 and young people received state assistance on marriage and preferential treatment in the allocation of housing, particularly if they had children. This pattern of frequent marriage at an early age lasted until the end of the 1980s, as in the majority of eastern European countries. 90–95% of single men and 95–98% of single women married, at an average age of 24.5 years for men and 21.5 for women. Other reasons for this included the low number of people admitted to secondary and higher education, the absence of unemployment and from the beginning of the 1970s special loans for newly-marrieds. In the 1950s and 1960s marriage was very often someone's first independent step in life. The limited opportunities for studying, the impossibility of travelling abroad, particularly for work, and the very limited possibilities for other forms of self-realisation created a very favourable environment for marriage.

After the political upheaval of 1989 the situation of young single people changed virtually overnight. The number of people admitted to higher education rose, the opportunities for travel expanded, previously banned private enterprise suddenly became possible, income inequalities began to appear and with these came variations in the standard of living. For young qualified people in particular it was easy to find well paid jobs. Marriage and a family were still held in high esteem but tended to be postponed to a later age, after gaining qualifications, a steady job and a good income. This tendency was increased by the high cost of flats for young couples and also by unemployment, which has risen, particularly in the last two years (in these years around 6% of men and 9% of women aged 20–24 were unemployed and fears about finding a first job or of losing it once gained were even higher).

Since 1993, the motivation to improve one's standard of living on the one hand and the pressure of external conditions for marrying on the other have led more people to put off marrying to a later age. The rise in the number of marriages in 1990 was due to the announcement of new and more stringent conditions for obtaining the special loans for newly-marrieds and there was a compensatory fall in 1991 which was repeated in subsequent years. The lowest number of marriages to date, less than 54,000, was recorded in 1996. The slight rise in marriages registered in 1997 gave some reason to hope that the trend was reversed, but the number dropped again in 1998, although not to the earlier minimum. The number of very young people marrying is falling and the postponement of marriage to a later age has become general. It could be assumed that a three to four-year postponement of marriage would lead to a rise in the nuptiality rate in 1997–1998, but this did not occur. This was because there was no change in the conditions for marrying: the prices of flats rose still further, the standard of living had fallen and the overall social atmosphere had worsened.

A certain although unquantifiable role in the falling level of nuptiality can be attributed to an increase in de facto marriages. This can be deduced from the rise in the percentage of children born outside matrimony, including a higher percentage of second or subsequent children. It cannot yet be said, however, that consensual unions have to some degree replaced legal marriage as is the case particularly in northern European countries.

The fall in the nuptiality rate is accompanied by a steadily declining number of marriages involving single people. In only around 60% of marriages are both partners marrying for the first time, while the number of marriages involving divorced people is still rising. This is due to the still overly high divorce rate even though the level of nuptiality among divorced people has fallen by around 40% since 1990.

The low level of nuptiality, particularly since 1993, was due to a reduced probability of single people marrying throughout the entire age range, with the greatest drop primarily in the age under 23 where the rate was only a third to a half of that in 1989. In 1997 the probability of marrying at age 25 or over in fact rose slightly, but still remained far below its original level. This slight rise in the nuptiality of older single people increased the total number of marriages although first marriages accounted for less than half of the total increase of under 4,000 marriages.

The marked fall in the age-specific nuptiality rate of young single people has meant a notable change in the curve of the probability of marrying. From a maximum concentration at the age of 22–24 for men and 19–22 for women (1989) these curves first began to decline and gradually to show a broader spread, with the maximum probability of marrying rising to 24–28 for men and 22–25 for women (in 1996 the peak was at 21–25 and at almost the same level). The shift in the most common age for marrying is therefore linked with a greater range of age at marriage. These figures for the probability of marrying at 25 or over in 1996 were probably due to the minimal level of nuptiality of single persons. A later shift can be expected, i.e. the rise of indicators above a certain age level at the expense of a further fall or continuing at a low level below this age.

According to the data in the nuptiality tables, between 1989 and 1997 the number of people marrying for the first time by the age of 50 rate fell by 16% for men and 17% for women, according to recalculation from the net nuptiality rate for single persons by 36 percentage points for men and 41 for women. The imbalance between these figures indicates a steep drop, slightly larger among women than among men. At the 1997 nuptiality rate for single persons, 27% of men and 21% of women would not marry by the age of 50, which is many more than is indicated in surveys of young people's life plans (14% and 8% respectively).

The tendency to postpone marrying is also clear from the rise in the average age at marriage of single people. After a slight fall in 1990 (with the rise in young people marrying) the average age at marriage has risen steadily by 3.1 years for men and 3.6 for women between 1989 and 1997. The median age at marriage has also risen at a similar rate. Calculation of the upper and lower quartiles of the age distribution for marriage has confirmed a greater age range. Despite this the Czech Republic is still two or three years "behind" European countries in the average age at marriage. The difference between the average age at marriage for single men and women has also fallen from the original 2.8 years in 1989 to 2.1 years in the last two years considered.

Fig 2.2: Distribution of Net Nuptiality by Age (table nuptiality by single persons)

The drop in the nuptiality rate for very young people (see Table 4 in the Appendix) has gradually created a large "supply" of potential brides and grooms among 20–24-year-olds and of single men among 25–29-year olds. A large number of these are prepared to get married if the conditions for doing so improve. The steady rise in the percentage of single persons since 1991 can be seen even more clearly in Table 3 in the Appendix.

In earlier years the lack of reliable contraception meant that pregnancy was a frequent reason for marrying, with more than half of young women being pregnant before the wedding. In recent years this percentage has fallen slightly and in many cases it involves a first child of a couple living together (generally "on trial") and the parents want to get married before the child is born.

Almost 200,000 young single men and women are "in line" for marriage, but while they are slowly taking this step the number doing so is not yet great. There is a numerical imbalance between the generations of single men and women (2–3 years younger) at the age of the highest rate of nuptiality in recent years which has created a certain disproportion between the number of potential brides and grooms. Except in exceptional circumstances, there is a preponderance of men on the "marriage market". This also corresponds to the naturally greater number of men at this age. Considering that the initiative in marriage lies with women (who marry more frequently than do men) it can be said that all potential brides can find a partner of the corresponding age. The inequality in the number of young single or unmarried men and women may be slightly affected by the timing and probability of marrying, but it cannot be considered as one of the causes for the postponing of marriages or the decline in nuptiality.

The level of nuptiality among divorced persons has also fallen throughout the period since 1990. The greatest drop was among those under 25, where it fell to less than half the original level, and while the fall was not so great at higher ages it was still numerically significant. As around one fifth of marriages involve a divorced partner, this fall had a certain influence on the decline in the rate of nuptiality, or rather on the postponement of marriage. Even the fall in the nuptiality level of divorced people led to their number rising since 1991 by more than a third in the 25–29 age group (6,000 men and 9,000 women) and by even more in the 30–34 age group.

The shift in marriage to a later age, best seen from the table of the nuptiality of single people (Table 4 in the Appendix) but also from actual figures, is causing a marked change in the distribution of the population by marital status (Table 3). The greatest differences are at the age of 20 or 25. The percentage of single men at the age of 23 has risen by 21 percentage points since 1991 and by 16 percentage points at the age of 26. The percentage of single women aged 21 has risen by 34 points and by 21 points at the age of 24. The number of marriages by minors (before the age 18, i.e of legal majority) fell to an insignificant minimum even for women, while the number of marriages before the age of 21 dropped by 73% for both sexes. The drop in the percentage of people living in marriage is noticeable throughout the entire age spectrum up to the age of 60.

The lack of data on the distribution of persons marrying makes it impossible to determine which groups of young people are exhibiting "old style" demographic behaviour, with a minimal postponement of marriage, and which are most likely to postpone marrying. It can be assumed that the former include particularly qualified tradespersons, people who are self-employed or with secure jobs, living mostly in the country or in smaller towns, who have or can get their own flats – unlike more highly educated people, particularly graduates, who are more concentrated in larger towns and cities where they have little hope of getting their own flat. More and more people are however probably shifting from the first group to the second. After more than six years of a fall in the number of marriages, due to their postponement to a later age, the new pattern of marital behaviour can be said to be fixed element of the new Czech population situation. This is also helped by rising unemployment among young people, including school leavers.

A further total fall in the number of marriages in 1998 by 2,800 on the previous year occurred in seven calendar months (particularly in March and April, in June and in November) while in two months stayed unchanged, and a slight increase was recorded only in January, February and July. This comparison indicates that there was no reversal during the year. External conditions for marrying such as the accommodation situation, high unemployment, an unchanging standard of living, etc. did not lead to any marked change.

The number of marriages and the level of nuptiality have now been under the level at the end of the 1980s for seven years, with the basic reason being the postponement of marriage to a later age. Marriages by minors and by people under 21 have fallen, the average age of both men and women at first marriage has risen by more than three years, although it has not yet reached the level of most western European countries, where the peak for women is around 27–29 years. The shift of age at marriage should therefore be considered as a positive outcome of the more difficult conditions, opportunities and risks in life and so as a sign of more responsible behaviour. This has led to the variations in the number of marriages in recent years: the fall in the rate of nuptiality up to the age of about 25 and only a slight increase at later ages. The situation on the "marriage market" has not changed for some years, but the "supply" of young single and also divorced people has increased. It is probable that only a very small percentage of these live in de facto marriages, and when they do it is more likely to be as a trial than a substitute for legal marriage.

In the period between 1990 and 1997 the decline in the nuptiality rate expressed in the fall in the percentage of married women accounted for a drop of about 60% in the number of children born in marriage. Only a small part of this drop was compensated for by a rise in the fertility rate of unmarried women. One condition for any rise in the number of births in the future is therefore conditional on a rise in the nuptiality rate and an increase in the number and percentage of married women – in other words on a halt or at least a slowing down of the tendency to postpone marrying. A close observation of the process of nuptiality is therefore becoming an ever more important part of the analysis of the process of reproduction.

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