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Introduction

Age Structure

Nuptiality

Divorce

Natality

Abortion

Mortality

Migration

Population Forecast

Appendix

Bibliography

AGE STRUCTURE

The age structure of a population is an important element in any demographic analysis, as it forms the background for the other development processes. While the age structure of any population is constantly modified by the levels of births and deaths and by the net migration balance, in the case of processes under way at any one time, past conditions play a greater role than current ones. The latter do however lay the groundwork for future developments, both in the short and long term, and in the modern era can influence the next one hundred years.

Fig. 1.1: Age Structure as of 1 January, 1998

This is the reason why the age structure of the population of the Czech Republic is deformed by events which for most inhabitants lie in the distant past: the first and second world wars, the depression of the 1930s, the drop in the birth rate after the last war and in particular the rise in births during the 1970s. These influenced the number of children born in different years - and the subsequent size of these generations was also influenced by other equally important, if less obvious, factors such as the level of medical and health care which went hand in hand with the general style and standard of living to influence the level of mortality, while political and social conditions influenced the level of migration and the relative proportions of immigrants and emigrants. Since between 1962 and 1986 mortality was relatively high and emigration took its toll primarily on the male part of the population, the population of the Czech Republic was distinguished by a relatively high proportion of women of middle age and an overall low proportion of older people. These factors placed the Czech Republic among the countries of eastern Europe in demographic terms.

Overall the age structure of the Czech population in the post-war period was very positive. Thanks to the prevailing model of a two-child family the level of fertility stayed around two children right up to the beginning of the 1990s, despite the very high level of nuptiality (the deformation of the age structure is due rather to a shift in the age at which people have children, rather than any change in completed fertility). Combined with a high level of mortality from middle age onwards this meant that children under 15 represented one quarter of the population. The percentage of people over 65, on the other hand, rose only slightly. The proportion of the population aged 15-65, i.e. the potential work force, was almost two thirds of the total, leading to a very low index of economic burden. At the end of the 1980s for every 100 people aged 15-65 there were 32 children under 15 but only 19 persons over the age of 65. At that time the boundary between working age and retirement age was set by the retirement ages of 60 for men and 55 for women, so that the burden on the work force became distinctly higher as people aged around 60 left it. The 1991 census counted 71 economically inactive people (of which 36 were children) for every 100 people of working age (15-59 for men, 15-54 for women).

During the 1990s the existing deformations of the age structure shifted upwards on the age pyramid and had a greater or lesser influence on the changes in the number of marriages, births and deaths in each year, while the fall in the level of fertility also began to make deep inroads on the age structure. Both factors still had a relatively positive impact on the economic sphere, since the size of the potential work force increased and the number of dependent persons, primarily children, fell (the dependency of ratio, i.e. the number of persons under age 15 plus those aged 65 or over per 100 persons aged 15-64 fell to only 44). Since the mortality level also fell, the demographic aging of the Czech population moved towards the top of the pyramid.

The 1980 census showed that the birth wave of the 1970s produced a short-term "rejuvenation" of the Czech population, as the percentage of children rose to 23, meaning a drop in the average age of the population. In the following years those reaching the age of 65 belonged to the relatively small population born during the first world war, thus slowing the rise in the size of the old generation. These two factors were evident in the variations of the index of economic burden.

The most important factor influencing the population age structure in the 1990s was the fall in the number of births. In comparison with the situation in 1989-1991 when an average of 130,000 children were born each year, in 1996-1998 the number of births fell to only 90,000, i.e. by 30%. The number of births had been falling since 1975 but initially this decline was relatively slow. The change noted in the mid-1990s created a "step" which has gradually become apparent not only in the number of young children but in the total number of children. The fall in the number of children under 15, which in the early 1990s was due to the large number of children born in the 1970s birth wave reaching the age of 15, accelerated and now lies at 17%. The fall in the number of children is so notable that since 1997 the Czech Republic has had more inhabitants over the age of 60 than children under 15 and this predominance of older people can be expected to rise for years to come.

The second most important characteristic of the 1990s has been the shift of the relatively numerous generations born in 1973-1979 out of compulsory school age into secondary or higher studies and then into the work force. From a demographic point of view, it was also important that these generations gradually reached the age which had seen the highest levels of marriage and fertility in the 1980s. At the end of the 1990s this relatively large group is reaching the age of 20-25 and their weight in the population has contributed to a rise in the percentage of people aged 15-64 to almost 70%. Since these young people are demonstrating new patterns of reproductive behaviour, their number has contributed significantly to the fundamental change in the characteristics of demographic change.

The 1990s have been characterised by a steady increase in the number of people of employable age. The percentage of people aged 15-64 rose from 66% in 1991 to 69% and the most recent forecasts indicate that this increase will continue until 2006, after which there will be a downwards trend. There are also major changes in the relative size of age groups within this category due to the aging of the relatively large number of people born in certain years of the 1930-1985 period. These changes would be insignificant in a population with a regular age structure, but in the Czech case there are concerns about developments in the near future, even though the situation in the 1990s was positive. At the beginning of the 1990s the large number of people born at the end of the second world war or soon afterwards were aged 40-50, that is at the peak of their performance and still sufficiently flexible to be able to change their jobs. This group, which demonstrated a relatively high level of nuptiality already had established household with durable consumer goods and often adult children. Even despite the high rate of divorce almost 80% of people in this age group were married. For these reasons a decline in their standard of living due to the economic transformation did not cause major upheavals in their lives. On the other hand there were relatively few people close on retirement age, who were the first to lose their jobs in the economic downturn, but at the same time there were also fewer young people, who were greatly sought after on the job market. This meant that at the start of the transformation there was relatively little unemployment but during the 1990s the situation changed. At the end of the decade, when the economy is in deep recession, the number of young people looking for their first job is growing, as is the number of those nearing retirement. Thanks to the unexpectedly positive change in the mortality rate, this second group is larger than was expected ten years ago.

The 1990s were also notable for the slight rise in the number of older people. In eight years the number of people aged over 65 only rose by 109,000 (i.e. by 3 percentage points), even though in the same period life expectancy at the age of 65 rose by 1 year for men and 0.8 of a year for women. This is a result of the low level of natality in the 1930s and the high mortality in the 1970s and 1980s, which affected this generation in their middle age. This is also why there are significantly more women than men in this age group, although the proportions have evened out slightly in recent years. In 1991 62% of those over 65 were women and in 1998 the figure was 60%. The age structure of the oldest segment of the population is also affected by the fall in the number of children born during the first world war, which is evident in the drop in the number of people over 80. In the near future we can expect a marked and steady rise in the number of elderly people, which will in turn place much greater demands on health care and the pension system. In the long term the number of people reaching old age can be expected to grow further, even with the fall of the population of the Czech Republic. Forecasts indicate that by the year 2020 the number of people over the age of 65 will have increased by more than half. At the same time the age structure of the oldest segment of the population is changing with a rise in the percentage of those aged over 80, i.e. those who can be expected to have greater needs for health and social care.

During the 1990s there was also a change in the distribution of the population by marital status. Most notable was the fall in the number of married people, due to changing reproductive patterns among young people. The falling rate of marriage for both single and divorced people was shown by the drop in the percentage of married people up to the age of 60 to the lowest level since World War II. The fall in the rate of marriage can be seen up to the 40-50 age group, with 25% of men aged around 30 now single as opposed to only 18% in 1991, with the comparable figures for women being 15% and 7% (see Table 3 in the Appendix). Marriage breakdowns have also reduced the percentage of people in active marriages, with this being more noticeable among women than among men, who more frequently find new partners. The highest percentage of married people, around the age of 35 for women and of 50 for men, does not at present reach 80%. Among older people, on the other hand, thanks to the lower mortality of married people and the lower rate of divorce, the percentage of married people has risen slightly, although not at the expense of single or divorced people as with those in middle age, but rather due to a fall in the number of widows and widowers. In general terms, it can be said that recent developments, both positive and negative, have had a greater effect on the female part of the population.

The rising percentage of elderly people in the population and the drop in the percentage of children has been recorded in developed European countries since the late 1960s and is closely related to people's changing value orientations and demographic behaviour, together with the success of modern medicine. The aging of the population has not generally been as rapid as that in the Czech Republic (and other eastern European countries) since the beginning of the 1990s. The speed of these changes and the major contribution to these of the aging at the bottom of the pyramid can be expected to have a negative effect on the total population at the beginning of the 21st century.

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