Presented publication is a synthetic evaluation of the Czech Republic population development in the period 1990-2002. Significant changes occurred in the demographic behavior of the Czech population; they could have been seen in all demographic processes. The frequency of divorces has remained relatively stable, the mortality has improved (expressed in the expectation of life) especially among men, the frequency of abortions has dropped and Czechia became closer in this matter to the demographically most developed countries. The fertility decreased on the very low level; it has been influenced not only by the consequences of economic, social and political transformation, but also the demographic conditions themselves have played a certain role here, obviously not independently from the previous changes. The level of nuptiality has also dropped as one important condition of the realized fertility, and so especially as a result of so called timing of marriages (their postponement to higher ages) and consequently the average age of mothers significantly increased (by primiparae and all mothers). The reasons of this development are discussed in the text in detail as far as they could have been detected on the basis of demographic processes or more or less precisely specified.
The relevant attention has also been devoted to internal and external migration. Migration data are not as reliable as data of natural movement. External migration does not play yet an important role in the population development of the Czech Republic; however, its significance would grow in the future. It will represent more and more a noteworthy component of the population development. This concerns especially population forecasts. The three variants of the population forecast of the Czechia by the final year 2050 lies in the range 8-10 million inhabitants. Similarly as in other demographically developed countries the population size itself is not the main problem but the demographic ageing. The share of population over the age of 60 will double in all three variants by 2050 in comparison with 2000. It is very difficult to change this trend. The society and the government have to take this fact into consideration and they have to be prepared for it. This is also one of the most important results of the presented analysis.
This paper is also available
as a large single file.
For viewing files in PDF format you will need free
Adobe Acrobat Reader