Abstract

Main features in the population development of the SR in the first half of 21st century will be the decline of the population increase and ageing. The intensity of these processes will directly depend on the development of fertility, mortality and migration, however, indirectly it will be influenced also by other demographic factors, as well as by social, political, economic, cultural and many other factors.

It is very likely that the population increase will stagnate for some time. Only the increase of fertility to the replacement level and the positive net migration at the level at least 10 thousand people annually would allow maintaining of moderate population increase until the end of the projection period. Such development is, however, very unlikely. It can be assumed, that during 15-20 years at the latest, the period of a persistent decrease of population will start, which will cease most likely at the end of century. Today it is very hard to say at which level, but as we see it nowadays, the decrease of the number of population of the SR down to the level of 4 million people until 2100 seems to be possible. During the forthcoming decades the ageing of population will accelerate. It is the consequence of the decrease in births and the increase of life expectancy. It is a process, which is in the horizon of this projection considered as irrevocable, it cannot be ceased, only alleviated. Population ageing is the most significant consequence of the current demographic development.

---

This paper is downloadable here in PDF format (requires Adobe Acrobat Reader, which can be downloaded for free).